"Donald Trump has become the first American President""to have been convicted for a crime."
"He will be sentenced on 26th November."
"But can it be"
"that after winning an election,"
"a president might have to go to jail?"
"Trump's biggest cause has been illegal immigration."
"But as President,""not only illegal,""he will disrupt legal immigration too."
"Hundreds and thousands of Indians live in the US on H-1B visa."
"But he considers H-1B visa wrong and unfair." "There are news reports already that Trump's policies"
"will affect more than 1 million Indians" "who are waiting for the Green Card."
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| Donal Trump |
Hello, friends! In the recent American presidential elections, Donald Trump has achieved a historical victory. Not only is Donald Trump going to be the US President again,but his Republican Party is going to be forming the majority in both the American House of Representatives and the Senate.
"Breaking news, we are projecting at this hour the 47th President of the United States Donald Trump,will be elected to return to the White House."Apart from this, this will be the first time in 20 years,where a President from the Republican Party will win the popular vote of the public.Popular vote means a majority in vote share. A higher percentage of Americans voted for Donald Trump rather than Kamala Harris. It may sound weird but the American political system is designed in a way that many times, one candidate gets the majority vote share but another candidate becomes the President.This happened in the 2016 elections too,when Hillary Clinton received 2.8 million more votes than Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton got 48.2% and Donald Trump received 46.1% votes.But still, Donald Trump won that election,and became the President. How is this possible? Let's understand this strange American political system and find out what will be the impact of Donald Trump becoming the President again on India and the rest of the world.In India, elections are held every 5 years.And the Election Commission decides the date of the elections.But in America, this process is repeated every 4 years.On a fixed date.
Every 4 years, on the first Tuesday of November,Americans go out to vote for their President.On this day, not only do they vote to elect their President,but also their House of Representatives and Senate.The House of Representatives is the Lower House in America,same as the Lok Sabha in India.And the Senate is the Upper House,like the Rajya Sabha.In short, they are known as the House and Senate.On one hand, the people directly vote in the Lok Sabha elections in India,but do not elect the members of the Rajya Sabha directly.
On the other hand, in the USA,the members of both the House and the Senate are directly elected by the people.These elections are held every two years.The members of the Senate, known as the Senators,have a term of 6 years.So, all of them aren't elected together.Every 2 years, one-third Senators are elected.For example, this year, 34 Senators were to be elected.So, on the day of the election,most of the world thinks that Americans vote only for their President.But in reality,they cast three votes.
First, to elect their President.Second, to elect their House Representative.And third, to elect their Senator.The process for the three elections is different.First, let's look at their House.There are a total of 435 seats in the House.Seats are allocated to each State according to its population.
For example, New York gets 26 seats,And states like Alaska and Montanaget only 1 or 2 seats,even though these states are much bigger in size than New York.Because the population is considered, not the land area.Montana has about 1.1 million people,and New York has a population of almost 20 million.The House elections are quite direct. Every state is divided into multiple districts and the voters of each district choose one representative.The candidates campaign at local level and talk about local issues.
Eventually, the candidate with the most votes in each district wins.This is not unusual and it does not affect the presidential election. People can vote for candidates from different parties for the three elections.
Before the 2024 elections,Republicans had 222 seats in the House,and Democrats had 213.Republicans already had a majority because in the elections 2 years ago,the 2022 elections,the Republican Party had won more seats.In these elections,the Republican Party is getting a majority again. The counting is still going on,so the exact numbers cannot be predicted.It takes several days to finish the counting.Now, coming to the Senate,there are 100 members in total.Two Senators are elected from every state in America.There is no population criteria for this.
There are 50 states in America. So 50 times 2,100 members.Simple calculation.Before the 2024 elections, the Democrats had a majority of 51-49 in the Senate.But recently, after the 2024 elections, the majority has now been reversed and the Republicans have a majority here as well. And this majority is very important for any political party. Because, friends, it is the Senate that has the power to appoint federal judges and Supreme Court justices.
Although the judiciary should be truly independent from the political system, but for the past few years, there has been a lot of controversy in America that the Republican Party has appointed its people to the Supreme Court and because of that, such decisions are being passed. The Right to Abortion was a constitutional right for women living in America but after the Supreme Court ruling in 2022 this was taken away from women.This judgement meant that in many American states,women weren't allowed to get an abortion.
Apart from this, the Senate also has the power to pass bills.If a law is to be made in America,it needs to be passed in both the House and the Senate.Just like in India,where a law can be made only after it was passed in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha both.Now, let's come to the Presidential Elections, the most well-known elections in America.
Being the American President is the most powerful position in America, it can be equated with the Prime Minister's position in India. The only difference here is that India has a parliamentary system,so the winning party in Lok Sabha elections later elects the Prime Minister.It means that, technically, we don't vote for the PM candidate.For example, in the 2004 elections,when Congress led UPA won,no one knew that Dr Manmohan Singh would become India's Prime Minister.
But for the past few years, Indian elections are becoming like this. Where people are voting for a party's leader, Prime Minister candidate or Chief Ministerial candidate. In America, people choose their president by voting for a presidential candidate. But there is a twist in the story. Technically, this vote is not a direct vote for the American president. Rather, the votes are cast through Electors.
A body of electors, called the Electoral College, eventually goes and elects the President. Even though the President and Vice President candidates' names are printed on the ballot paper,and yes, even today, most states use ballots for their elections,in reality, people vote for those electors who will be loyal to the party. There are 538 Electors in America.And every state has a defined number of electors.Some states have more electors,some states have fewer electors. This depends on the state's population.Actually, the number of electors is the number of members in the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators in the state. So basically, the number of House members plus two is the number of electors.
For example, take Texas.Texas has 38 House Representatives and 2 Senators.So, the number of electors is 38 + 2 = 40. Since there are 538 electors, for a presidential candidate to win, they need to cross the halfway mark. 270 electoral votes. Here comes the strangest part about these presidential elections, the winner-takes-all system. In a state, the entire state, the presidential candidate who gets the most votes, all the electors of that state will vote for that candidate.
For example, if we look at Texas,there are 40 electors. Suppose Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a face-off, Kamala Harris gets 50.01% of the votes in the state and Donald Trump gets 49.99% of the votes. There is a slight difference in votes. But because of this 0.02%, all 40 electoral votes from Texas will go to Kamala Harris. This is why we might see situations where a presidential candidate might get more vote share across the country, but they may still lose the election, because the electoral votes went to the other candidate. Now, a huge downside of this system is that in some states, a political party may be preferred more by some people in a 55-45 ratio, or even a 60-40 ratio, then in such cases, the parties start taking the state for granted. After 1988, there have been about 20 states that have consistently voted for the same party.
In the map, you can see that the states on the East Coast and the West Coast are shown in blue because these states generally almost always vote for the Democrat Party. And the states in the middle are shown in red because they usually, almost always, vote for the Republican Party. 7 states are such that since 1988, they have always voted for the Democratic Presidential candidates and 13 states have always voted for the Republican Presidential candidates. These states are considered the Safe States. And the remaining few states where the competition is actually tough are known as the Swing States. Because they can swing in any direction. They can change the election results with even a small margin of vote.
In the 2020 elections, in 7 states,where the winning margin was 3% or less. In these elections, these states were considered the Swing States. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada. Since the election results depend the most on these swing states, both presidential candidates spend most of their time campaigning in these states. Most of their campaigns focus on these states. And the rest of the states are almost ignored.
In my opinion, this is a big downside of the American election system. Think about it, if you live in a safe state, your vote won't matter much. No matter which party you vote for, your state will always favour a specified party. On the other hand, the votes cast by voters in a few states,outweigh others by so much that it is their votes that decide the election results. And on the topic of Safe States, A day before the election, Donald Trump was shown to be ahead by 1.8% in swing states in comparison to Kamala Harris. Whereas, in the mid-October Reuters poll, Kamala Harris was leading by 1% in the country.
Looking at all this, the general expectation was that this would be a close competition. But, in the end, it wasn't a close competition, because Donald Trump won all the 7 swing states in this election. Now, the process isn't over after merely winning the election. Moving forward, in mid-December, the electors will vote to elect their President and Vice President. In early January, these votes will be sent to the Parliament for counting.
In America, Parliament is called Congress. So, these votes will be sent to the US Congress to be counted. And the members of the House and the Senate will count these. And then on 20th January, Donald Trump will become the new American President. That's how it happens. Even during the 2020 election, If might remember the controversy during the counting back then.
On 6th January 2021, when the Congress was counting the votes of the Electors, Approximately 2,000 Trump supporters breached and entered the Capitol building. Donald Trump's supporters then wrecked havoc. Many police officers were also assaulted. This was seen as a black day for American democracy.But recently when Donald Trump was asked about this day, he said that he considers this day a 'Day of Love.'
Fortunately, we can hope that we won't see such riots in January this time. But the next question is, how will Donald Trump's presidency impact India and the rest of the world? The first interesting thing will be to see, if and how Donald Trump would be punished. You might remember that some time ago, Donald Trump became the first convicted President in American history. I had talked about it in this blog,detailing the court case against him. The judgement was passed in May 2024, where Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 different felony counts. This crime was of falsifying business records in the hush money case.
Originally, the punishment was to be passed in September outlining Donald Trump's punishment whether he'd go to jail or not. But on the day of hearing in September, the judge said that they would get back to it after the election. The next date is 26th November, when Trump's sentence would be read out. So it will be interesting to see whether Donald Trump can be jailed or not.
If yes, then does he have the power to pardon himself as the President? And if he does that, how will it impact his reputation and America's reputation as a country? The second interesting thing here is that both presidential candidates had a connection with India. Kamala Harris's mother was from Tamil Nadu and Trump's Vice Presidential nominee, JD Vance, his wife Usha Vance's family is from Andhra Pradesh. During the campaign, one of Donald Trump's major issues was Illegal Immigration. He promised to put a stop to illegal immigration He claimed that during Joe Biden's administration, illegal immigration to America had increased on a large scale. "On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history."Last year alone, about 1,100 illegal immigrants were sent back to India. These people often went the Dunki way to get to America illegally.
I talked about the Dunki way in detail in this blog.But even for legal immigration, Donald Trump doesn't favour that either. Between 2016 to 2020 when Trump was the President, his administration took steps which made it difficult for the US companies to get H-1B visas. This is a 3-year temporary work visa for employees which can be extended for 6 years Many skilled Indian workers work in America on this visa. In fact, look at 2023 data,out of all H-1B approvals, 72.3% approvals were for Indians. Under Trump's government, the rate of visa rejections had increased exponentially.
In 2016, the H-1B rejection rate was around 6%. And by 2018, it had reached 24%. Additionally, Trump had raised the application costs, and made the process more complicated. Donald Trump has been very open about this. He called H-1B a theft of American prosperity. If American citizens and permanent residents want to bring their family members to America, then the time taken for family reunification can get longer under Trump's administration. Kamala Harris promised the opposite.
She talked about simplifying legal immigration and to bring reforms for family reunification. It's also being reported that under the new regime,the automatic citizenship granted to children born in the US,will soon end. The next big issue is the economy and inflation, this was the most popular issue during Trump's campaign. He has promised to reduce inflation. "When we go tomorrow I will end inflation, I will stop the invasion of criminals coming into our country."
And at the same time, he has also voiced concerns about the high tariffs imposed on American products imported into India. He had asked India to reduce tariffs on Harley-Davidson bikes. His supporters expect Donald Trump to push the America First strategy.He can impose penalties on those countries who impose high taxes on American products and services.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris did not state a clear-cut trade strategy. But during Joe Biden's administration, the bilateral trade between India and America grew a lot. This was quite favourable for India. Things being in India's favour from trade perspective means that we export more goods to America and import fewer American goods into our country. This was the scenario for the last 4 years. Between the financial year 2020 to 2024,the merchandise exports of India to America saw a 46% increase it reached up to $77.5 billion.While India's imports from America increased only 17.9% and reached $42.2 billion.In the last three years, the trade deficit was on India's side. It increased from $13.3 billion to $25.9 billion.
In 2018, the previous Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% tariffs on aluminium. Tariffs are taxes imposed by the importing country on imported goods. Because of these tariffs, both these Indian sectors suffered heavy losses. The steel sector suffered a loss of around $240 million. This tariff dispute was resolved in 2023 when Joe Biden was in power. And 70% of the steel tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and 80% of the aluminium tariffs was slashed by the Biden administration.
Will Donald Trump do the same again? We'll have to wait and watch. Because during his campaigns, Donald Trump has said that he wants to impose a 20% tariff on all imports. Whether it is pharmaceuticals, textiles, technology or engineering products.Kamala Harris estimated that because of these tariffs, American consumers may have to spend an extra $4,000 every year. I won't comment on what's better for the American public, but in her plans, Kamala Harris had mentioned that she will use deficits to spend more on housing, healthcare support, childcare, and education. Kamala Harris had also talked about increasing taxes on multi-billion dollar companies. She planned to increase taxes from 21% to 28%. And Donald Trump's promise was the complete opposite. He actually wants to reduce corporate tax from 21% to 15%. "I'm not raising your taxes,I'm raising all of these countries in Asia and all over the world." But the biggest downside of Donald Trump's presidency for the entire world would be the fight against climate change.
During the last Trump administration, America was the only country to leave the Paris Agreement. He had also loosened the emission and pollution standards for coal-fired power plants. This time, Donald Trump has talked about removing the red tape around oil and natural gas projects. He has talked about exiting the Paris Climate Deal again.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris had supported the Progressive Green New Deal in 2019, it is a climate change mitigation framework. It aimed to shift the American energy grid to renewable sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectricity in 10 years. It's a different story when Kamala Harris's hypocrisy was later revealed when she withdrew her claim to ban fracking.
At one point, she talked about prosecuting oil companies that cause pollution. But then, she was also seen praising record oil production in America. That's why it is difficult to predict which presidential candidate could prove to be more harmful to the planet and the environment. But one thing is clear, if Donald Trump's attitude continues, then the brunt of the pollution and carbon emissions damage caused by America will be borne by the entire world.
What do you think? How will Donald Trump impact the world over the next 4 years? Let us know in the comments below. Perhaps, the biggest downside of the American political system is that it has become a duopoly. These two political parties have such a strong grip over the nation, that it is next to impossible for a third party to come forward. In my opinion, this is very undemocratic. Thank you very much!
